Weather forecast for wells

Not the global warming, but the increase in the weather variability – the frequency and the range of changes - and their influence on man-made safety are the areas of great concern for the AI Voyeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The explosions of gas pipelines, disconnection of energy facilities, failures in the compressor stations ... the meteorologists claim that it is necessary to take urgent measures to adapt industrial sites to the climatic risks.

Quite often, technological accidents are provoked by natural phenomena, such as excessive rainfall - snow - and then the roofs, - flat roofs of the industrial enterprises - collapse. Rains lead to the destruction of infrastructure. Recall the deadly consequences of the accident of the goods train with oil near Tver due to the washing away of the railway path. "While making the design, - said Alexander Moskalenko, the President of GCE Group, we try to take into account many of these factors, for example, wind loading. However, most of the methods of risk simulation addressed to weather factors, especially the frequency of their changes, do not sustain.

After 30-40 years, for the industry the meteorological phenomena will be a greater risk than now. It has been stated in the report presented at the VIII International Forum on Industrial Safety by the Head of the Laboratory of Technical Climatology and Hazards, Nina Kobysheva.

Moreover, one should talk in the first place even not on climate change, but on the increase in its volatility, i.e. the frequency and scope changes. Abnormally high or low temperatures, large fluctuations, very strong winds, thunderstorms, snowstorms and other climatic phenomena for the enterprises pose a bigger threat than global warming, about which much was talked in recent times. The depth of thawing of permafrost in the West Siberian gas-bearing province, for example, for the last twenty years increased only by 40 cm. Relatively serious problems this phenomenon will create, as per the calculations of the scientists, only after about thirty years, when the thawing will reach around a meter.

On the other hand, the increased variability of atmospheric temperature in many parts of Russia has already caused negative effects for the industry. In particular, icing of transmission lines became more frequent. This leads to an increase in accidents in the energy sector, which leads to the disconnection of many industries from the sources of power supply. Especially great threat to the security in this is created by the power failure at the compressor stations of the gas pipelines, many of which do not have power supply back up.

Ice formation on the roads also increased. After all, the strong slippery tracks are given 2.5 as coefficient of aggressiveness of hazardous phenomena, though the wind has a ratio of 1, and the blizzard – 0.8.

The snow load on the floors of industrial buildings is also increasing, which, in conjunction with the formation of ice crusts and snow bags leads to collapse. Many buildings are prone to unplanned effects of high or low temperatures. Abrupt temperature changes (especially its declining) lead to the breakage of oil and gas pipelines and accidents at the wells.

According to the findings of the experts the Far North of Russia lying in between the 60th and 120th meridians has the greatest number of days, when dangerous climatic phenomena take place. That is, just where in recent times most of the active exploration activities of new mineral deposits are taking place. Since 1986, each year 100 to 450 dangerous meteorological phenomena are recorded on the territory of Russia. Moreover, their average number has been increasing. This became especially noticeable after 2004, which was the peak of dangerous climatic phenomena.

As per the model calculations, said Nina, in the middle of the XXI century the variability of hydro-meteorological factors will increase. Even if efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to success, the climate, as an inertial system, will not change soon. And therefore, according to the speaker, it is necessary to take parallel measures to adapt industrial sites to dangerous climatic phenomena.

All experts in one voice say: The usual meteorological information does nothing for the industry to address the issue of protection from natural hazards - underlines Nina. – what is required is a different one - problem-oriented information, and also information about weather hazards. But, some how, none of us ask for this, all though we know how to collect and analyze it.
If all these are taken into account, it will be possible to take a number of measures to adapt the industry to the changing conditions of weather. Nina Vladimirovna says, it is done I this way in other countries. It is possible to organize specialized monitoring and early warning system of the appearance of the dangerous phenomena. It is possible to make changes in the designs of the new facilities. And finally, it is possible to make a few changes in the system of exploitation of the existing ones. In general, do everything possible to minimize such risks.

Unfortunately, the scientist stated, so far very few demands form the business sector. And she invited the industrialist for cooperation.

Based on the results of the VIII International Forum on Industrial Safety
www.conference.gce.ru

Department of Public Relations,
GCE Group: (812) 325-0621, 331-8353
www.gce.ru